i}
a]
a

TABLE 4.—Intervention, followup,

and cessation results for three major community prevention trials

 

Community trial

Intervention

Control group contact

Followup

Reported cessation rates/
(objective measures)

 

WHO European
Collaborative Trial:
United Kingdom
(62)

Mass media intervention for
all factory workers

Antismoking clinics for all
smokers

High risk smokers (top 10-15%
risk) offered individual
treatment (four 15 min sessions
in year 1 with company
physician)

Random 10% sample invited
for screening

The rest of control males
not told of their
participation in the trial

Random 5% IG examined
yearly

All survivors examined
at end of trial

Same random 10% CG
screened, reexamined at
2 years

Treated Control _ Time

12% ' (no 5 yrs
(high risk change)
smokers)

9% (all
smokers)

7% (non-
high-risk
smokers)
(no objective measures used)

 

WHO European
Collaborative Trial:
Belgium
(62)

Mass media intervention for
all factory workers

High risk smokers (top 21%
risk) offered counseling and
examination by project
physicians twice per year

Random 10% invited for
screening

Other 90% had resting
ECG only

Random 5% IG examined
yearly

All survivors examined
at end of trial

18.7% * 12.2% 2 yrs
(high risk (high risk
smokers) smokers)

12.5% (all 12.6% (all
smokers) smokers)

(no objective measures used)

 
LLG

TABLE 4.—Continued.

 

Community trial

Intervention Control group contact

Followup

Reported cessation rates/
(objective measures)

 

 

North Karelia Comprehensive “community action” 6.6% random sample examined Random 6.6% of each 17%? 15% 5 yrs
(Finland) Project program against risk factors at baseline and 5 years community surveyed and (male (male
(82, 53, 63) examined in 1977 smokers) smokers)
All forms of media used
Results compared to (SCN drawn for random
Special groups set up as needed assess RF change subsamples)
(Correlations reported, but
adjustments not made)
*P <0.01.
7P <0.05.
* Not significant.
intervention subjects in the top 21 percent of the risk score
distribution were placed in the high risk group (n= 1,601).

All smokers in the intervention factories received the mass media
approach previously noted for the WHO trials, and all family and
factory physicians received regular information about the partici-
pants’ risk factors and took part in intervention (8, 26, 27). Twice a
year, high risk subjects were individually counseled and examined
by two project physicians (8, 26, 27) (Table 3).

Reports of the smoking results for this trial have included
comparisons of the results for the 5 percent random sample in the
intervention group with the results for the 10 percent random
sample of the control group at 2-year followup and comparisons of
the results of the high risk subjects in the intervention group with
the results of the high risk subjects selected from the 10 percent
random sample of the control group screened at baseline (9, 26, 27).

Reported smoking rates have not been validated with objective
measures. Among the high risk smokers, 18.7 percent in the
intervention group and 12.2 percent in the control group reported
cessation at 2 years, producing a Statistically significant difference
(p <0.05). For the random samples there was no difference in
reported cessation, with approximately 12.5 percent of the smokers
reporting cessation in both groups (26, 27). Smoking cessation rates
for the intervention group at 1 year was 12 percent and 8 percent for
the high risk subjects and the random sample, respectively (27),
indicating that cessation occurred gradually over the 2-year period.

The North Karelia (Finland) Project

The North Karelia project was carried out in Finland during 1972-
1977 as a comprehensive community program to study the control of
cardiovascular disease (CVD), with special emphasis on CHD, by
reduction of the major alterable CHD risk factors (smoking, in-
creased serum cholesterol, and hypertension (52, 53, 54, 63, 64, 65).
The intervention area was the county of North Karelia in eastern
Finland, which had the highest rates of CVD in that country. The
county of Kuopio, also in eastern Finland, was selected as the control
area because of its similarity to North Karelia.

Both in 1972 and in 1977 a representative random 6.6 percent
sample of the population born between 1913 and 1947 (aged 25 to 59
in 1972 and 30 to 74 in 1977) was drawn from the two counties by
using the national population register (53, 54). The samples in 1972
and in 1977 were independent of each other. Those persons surveyed
were sent a letter explaining the study, a questionnaire assessing
medical history, health behavior and attitudes, attempts to change
health behavior, and stress and an invitation and date for a physical
examination. Over 10,000 subjects were studied each time, with a
participation rate of about 90 percent (52, 53, 54, 63, 64, 65).

278
The comprehensive “community action” program against risk |
factors was integrated into the health and social services of the
county and was aimed at primary and secondary prevention,
although primary prevention was emphasized. Public information
was provided through newspapers, radio, leaflets, posters, health
education meeetings, and campaigns at schools and places of work
(53); new services were set up if needed, personnel were trained, and
environmental changes (e.g., smoking restrictions) were implement-
ed. The project team planned the activities, prepared the educational
material, helped train personnel, and got the community into action
(54). Smoking cessation group activities were available to those
smokers who wanted them, on the basis of a 3-week model developed
by the project (63). Approximately 55 percent of the smokers were
willing to join the groups, and 71 percent of those who started
completed the groups (63). Approximately 27 percent of those who
started the group reported smoking cessation at 6 months.

The outcomes concerning changes in smoking are based on the
comparison of data obtained in the baseline survey and in the 5-year
terminal survey from the study community and the matched control
community. The validity of the self-reports of smoking behavior was
tested on a random subsample of subjects who were given a second
interview about smoking by trained nurses unaware of the answers
to the survey questionnaire (53). When classified by an interval of 5
or 10 cigarettes, the agreement between the two results was 93 and
97 percent, respectively. The agreement was 99 percent when
classification was smoker or nonsmoker (53). Serum thiocyanate
(SCN) determinations made during the termination interview pro-
vided further validation. Since it is not otherwise noted in the
scientific reports, it is assumed that the results are based on self-
report and are not corrected. Individuals who reported ever having
smoked regularly or having smoked during the preceding month on
an average of more than once a day were classified as smokers. The
reported number of cigarettes, cigars, and pipes smoked per day was
calculated as the amount smoked (53).

The prevalence of smoking in the study and in the control area for
men was 50.2 and 59.9 percent, respectively, and for women 11.7 and
13.1 percent at the start of the study. At year 5, 17 percent of the
baseline male smokers in North Karelia reported smoking cessation
and 15 percent of the baseline male smokers in Kuopio reported
cessation of smoking (52, 53) (Table 4). Thus, smoking had decreased
considerably in both the control and the study groups, yielding a
nonsignificant net reduction in North Karelia of 2.5 percent for the
men and 6.1 percent for the women. With regard to amount smoked,
North Karelian men smoked more than did the men in the control
area in 1972 (9.9 versus 8.9 cigarettes per day), and both groups were
smoking 8.1 cigarettes per day by the end of the study (53), producing

279
a significant net reduction among North Karelian men of 9.8
percent. The mean number of cigarettes smoked by smokers in
North Karelia was 19 cigarettes per day, which remained stable
during the study (63),

A small net reduction occurred in the prevalence of smoking
because, even though considerable cessation was reported in North
Karelia, smoking also decreased at a similar rate in Kuopio, the
control area. The investigators noted several possible explanations
for this decrease (53). There was an increase in interest in antismok-
ing activities toward the end of the study period: the Finnish
Parliament passed new antismoking legislation in 1976, and a new
medical school opened in Kuopio in 1972. They also indicated on the
basis of internal followup surveys that most of the reduction in
smoking occurred at the beginning of intervention in N orth Karelia,
after the first intensive public antismoking campaign, and that this
lower level of smoking was maintained during the rest of the period
(39, 63).

Deficiencies in the Community Preventive Trials

The major deficiencies in these community preventive trials are
the same as those noted for the clinical trials; Le., lack of objective
data to verify self-reported outcomes, use of cross-sectional analyses
to the almost complete exclusion of cohort analyses, failure to
provide sufficient information in scientific reports to allow adequate
interpretation of outcomes, and lack of evaluation of components of
the intervention packages.

Objective data to verify self-reports were not used in the United
Kingdom and the Belgium heart disease prevention projects, and
although SCN was measured in the North Karelia study, it was not
used to adjust the self-reported cessation data. Data for strata of
smokers by age were presented for the North Karelia study (74), but
not for cohorts of smokers by smoking-behavior-change categories.
Longitudinal data for cohorts of smokers in the other two trials were
not presented. The value of cohort data is illustrated by a statement
made by the North Karelia investigators in which they noted that
even though the smoking cessation rates were similar in North
Karelia and Kuopio, most of the cessation in North Karelia occurred
at the beginning of the project and was maintained (63, 74). This
information was obtained by the use of followup surveys of samples
of residents. It was hypothesized that most of the cessation for the
comparison community may have occurred near the termination of
the project when antismoking legislation and other changes had
occurred there (39, 63). Cohort data for the comparison community
or for subgroups are not available; thus, the hypothesis cannot be
tested.

280
Use of the same subjects for baseline and termination surveys are
likely to influence outcomes; therefore, the change may look better
than it actually is (63, 54, 63). The use of a cohort design might
therefore produce a net effect that is not totally a consequence of the
intervention alone, but may also include the effect of the first survey
as well as its interaction with the intervention (63). Thus, there is a
possible need to examine independent cross-sectional population
samples in the two areas under study at the start and termination of
the project. This hypothesis is not supported by data from the North
Karelia study, where cessation rates for 6.6 percent of the random
sample of smokers in the baseline survey of the control community
who were also included in the termination survey were similar to the
rates for the rest of the smokers who were surveyed only at
termination (63). Data from the United Kingdom heart disease
prevention project (62) also failed to support the hypothesis of a
possible intervention effect from screening. -

Different components of intervention were not differentially
evaluated within any of the community trials because of the
community orientation of the projects. Thus, conclusions about the
relative contributions of different programs, subprograms, or chan-
nels of action cannot be drawn (39).

Comparison of Community Trials Outcomes

As is noted in Table 4, the 2-year cessation data for both the
Belgium and the United Kingdom WHO trials demonstrate that
there were significant differences in reported cessation rates for the
intensively intervened-with high risk smokers as compared with the
smokers in the control factories, but there were no significant
differences between the non-high-risk smokers in the intervention
factories who received a media-only approach as compared with the
non-high-risk smokers in the control factories. This outcome is
similar to the previously noted finding in the Stanford study; i.e.,
media only had no more intervention impact than had no interven-
tion. This lack of demonstrated impact for a media approach to
smoking cessation in the Belgium study was in part due to the 12.5
percent cessation rate achieved by the control group. This occur-
rence of cessation in a control group is similar to that demonstrated
in each of the clinical trials. Again, a saturation point may have been
reached in groups in which there is already an increased level of
awareness, and intensive intervention may be necessary if additional
cessation is to be realized in the next level of smokers. It may also be,
as previously noted, that although cessation occurred among the
nonintervention smokers, the long-term maintenance rate among
those in this group who stop smoking may be significantly different
from the long-term maintenance rate for the intervention group

281
smokers. Because of the lack of cohort data, this issue cannot be
addressed.

The range of cessation rates among the comparison groups for the
three trials is large, 0 to 15 percent, with the lowest rate recorded for
the United Kingdom group of the WHO collaborative study and the
highest for the Belgium group of the same study. The 0 percent
cessation rate for the control group in the United Kingdom trial is
puzzling, as this is less than the spontaneous cessation rate observed
in the general population. More in-depth analysis of the data for the
10 percent random sample of the control group who were screened at
baseline and reexamined at 2 years is indicated. Different protocols
for contact with the control group were used for the United Kingdom
from those used for the Belgium groups. The most notable difference
was that 90 percent of the United Kingdom control group were not
told of their participation in the trial, but 90 percent of the Belgium
group were told of their participation and had a resting ECG. An
additional 10 percent were told of their participation and had
complete physical examinations. It can be hypothesized that the use
of an ECG may have had an intervention effect for the Belgium
control group. The 15 percent rate for the North Karelia study was
determined at 5 years. One might hypothesize that this rate would
be lower at 2 years, the point at which the other two studies
conducted followup.

The 5-year cessation rate for the United Kingdom collaborative
trial is also low when compared with the 2-year rate for the Belgium
collaborative trial, which utilized a similar protocol. A major
difference for these two groups was that high risk smokers in the
Belgium study received two examinations per year while those in the
United Kingdom were given one. There was also a difference in the
number of physician-intervention visits during year 1; two were used
in the Belgium study and four were used in the United Kingdom
trial. Perhaps the feedback provided by an examination has a
greater intervention effect than a session with a physician intended
for counseling only. It can also be hypothesized that cultural
differences may have affected the differences in outcome between
the two groups in the same trial.

In general, the use of community programs that used only a media
approach did not produce a greater intervention effect than was
observed in the comparison community. The incorporation of more
intensive intervention in groups in addition to the media approach
was necessary before significant differences could be realized. The
Same outcomes were observed in the Stanford study,

282
Conclusions

1. Smokers involved in intervention programs demonstrate higher
smoking cessation rates than those in control groups.

2.In general, the success of smoking intervention programs is
related to the amount of intervention provided.
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289
SECTION 8. THE EFFECT OF
CIGARETTE SMOKING
CESSATION ON
CORONARY HEART
DISEASE

291
Epidemiologic Evidence Regarding Smoking Cessation and
Coronary Heart Disease

The epidemiologic data on smoking and coronary heart disease
(CHD) were reviewed in detail in a preceding section, as well as in
the Reports of the Surgeon General for 1964, 1971, and 1979 (60, 61,
62). Coronary heart disease ICD/6 and ICD/7 No. 420) before 1968
and ischemic heart disease (ICD/8 and ICD/9 Nos. 410-414) since
1968 are considered synonymous with one another for all practical
purposes and are abbreviated as CHD. Terminology and data on
CHD are discussed in detail elsewhere (33, 34, 44). This discussion is
limited to epidemiologic data on smoking cessation and CHD.
Several prospective studies involving self-selected questionnaire
respondents include extensive epidemiologic data on smoking cessa-
tion and CHD mortality. The results, summarized in Table 1, show
CHD death rates for former smokers relative to never smokers as a
function of the number of years stopped smoking cigarettes, general-
ly determined as of the time the questionnaire was completed. Data
in this form are available only for men, generally white men. The
studies are as follows: the British physicians study, including 10-year
followup (10, 12) and 20-year followup (72); the American Cancer
Society 9-State study (22, 23) and the American Cancer Society 25-
State cancer prevention study (20, 21); the U.S. veterans study with
8.5-year followup (32) and 16-year followup (49); and the Swedish
representative sample study with 10-year followup (4). Excluded
were numerous studies that present data only on former smokers as
a whole or have data on a few special categories of former smokers,
such as Shapiro et al. (58) and Hirayama and Hamano (25). Much of
these other epidemiologic data on former smokers is summarized in
the 1979 Report of the Surgeon General on Smoking and Health (60)
and in the preceding section of this Report on coronary heart disease.

Numerous epidemiologic studies (70, 11, 12, 14, 20, 21, 32) have
shown a decrease in CHD mortality for ex-smokers compared with
continuing smokers, and it has been suggested that smoking
cessation accounts for this salutary effect. Another view (57) has
been that continuing smokers and quitters are somehow constitu-
tionally different and that their health experiences might also be
different, independent of smoking status. Two prospective studies of
current smokers, some of whom became persistent quitters during
the course of the study, show that persistent quitters have lower
CHD and total death rates than do continuing smokers (17, 18).
Friedman et al. (17) examined this question in some detail in the
Kaiser-Permanente study of over 25,000 persons. They compared 18
baseline characteristics related to coronary disease in quitters and
continuing smokers at a time when all were smoking. They found
that the beneficial effects of quitting on CHD mortality could not be
explained by differences in their baseline characteristics (Table 2).

293
TABLE 1.—Male coronary heart disease and total mortality
smokers relative to never smokers,

ratios for current and former cigarette
as a function of years stopped smoking

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overall cohort Smoking selection Years Coronary heart disease All causes
description criteria stopped ! mortality ratio* mortality ratio?
British physicians* Cigarettes only 0 1.41 (464) 1.37 (1566)
1-4 1.05 (28) 0.96 (71)
5-9 1.25 (61) 1.18 (204)
10-14 1.16 (59) 1.12 (204)
15+ 1.12 (40) 1.11 (153)
NS 1.00 (113) 1.00 (436)
Attained age Attained age
30-54 55-64 654+ 30-64 65+ 304
British physicians * Cigarettes only, 0 3.5 17 13 2.0 16 18
at least 5 years 1-4 19 (7) 1.9 (19) 1.0 (24) 1.7 (67) 1.4 (99) 1.5 (166)
5-9 1.3 (10) 1.4 (34) 1.3 (76) 1.6 (141) 1.4 (242) 1.5 (383)
10-14 1.4 (10) 1.7 (38) 1.2 (62) 1.4 (104) 1.2 (206) 1.3 (310)
15+ 1.3 (7) 1.3 (45) 1.1 (148) 1.1 (106) 1.1 (484) 1.1 (590)
NS 1.0 (32) 1.0 (75) 1.0 (182) 1.0 (326) 1.0 (611) 1.0 (937)
Cigarettes smoked per day Cigarettes smoked per day
1-19 204 1-19 20+
American Cancer Society Cigarettes only 0 1.75 (604) 2.20 (604) 1.61 (2303) 2.02 (1326)
9-State study * <1 2.10 (23) 3.00 (18) 2.04 (51) 2.69 (35)
1-9 1,54 (80) 2.06 (64) 1.30 (159) 1.82 (135)
10+ 1.09 (40) 1.60 (40) 1.08 (141) 1.50 (87)
NS 1.00 (709) 1.00 (709) 1.00 (1644) 1.00 (1644)

 
96%

TABLE 1.—Continued.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overall cohort Smoking selection Years Coronary heart disease All causes
description criteria stopped ' mortality ratio? mortality ratio?
Cigarettes smoked per day Cigarettes smoked per day
for initial ages 40-79 for initial ages 50-74
1-19 20+ 1-19 20+
American Cancer Society Cigarettes only 0 1.90 (1063) 2.55 (2822) 1.72 (2015) 1.94 (3741)
25-State study *® <1 1.62 (29) 1.61 (62) 1.61 (64) 2.18 (213)
14 1.22 (57) 1.51 (154) 1.44 (144) 1.98 (499)
5-9 1.26 (55) 1.16 (135) 1.34 (128) 1.49 (416)
10-19 0.96 (52) 1.25 (133)
1.02 (255) 1.32 (546)
20+ 1.08 (70) 1.05 (80)
NS 1.00 (1841) 1.00 (1841) 1.00 (3512) 1.00 (3512)
Attained age, 55-64 Attained age, 55-64
US. veterans’ Cigarettes with or 0 1.66 (3064) 1.72 (6928)
without cigars/pipes, 14 1.34 (155) 1.56 (379)
stopped for other 5-9 1.47 (279) 1.42 (596)
than doctor’s orders 10-14 1.13 (161) 1.28 (365)
15+ 0.97 (342) 1.07 (779)
NS 1.00 (1218) 1.00 (2617)
Attained age, 31-99 Attained age, 31-99
U.S. veterans*® Cigarettes with or 0 1.58 (13,845) 1.73 (36,143)
without cigars/pipes, 14 1.35 (150) ~1.5 (384)
stopped for other 5-9 1.38 (599) ~14 (1441)
than doctor's orders 10-14 1.29 (997) ~1.3 (2445)
15-19 1.21 (1101) ~1.2 (2767)
20+ 1.05 (2418) ~1.05 (6049)
NS 1.00 (~6500) 1.00 (16,224)

 
TABLE 1.—Continued.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Overall cohort Smoking selection Years Coronary heart disease All causes
description criteria stopped ' mortality ratio? mortality ratio?
Years smoked cigarettes, initial age, 40-69 Years smoked cigarettes, initial age, 40-69
< 20 >20 Total <20 >20 Total
Swedish representative o 1.7 (212) 1.4 (557)
sample’ 1-9 0.9 (7) 1.6 (84) 1.5 (97) 1.0 (26) 1.4 (212) 1.3 (253)
104 0.9 (40) 1.1 (46) 1.0 (86) 1.0 (123) 1.0 (117) 1.0 (241)
NS 1.0 (219) 1.0 (219) 1.0 (219) 1.0 (671) 1.0 (671) 1.0 (671)

 

' Years stopped smoking was measured as of beginning of followup, except for the U.S. veterans study, where the number of years stopped was increased by 1 with the passage of each calendar year

unless death occurred. 0 years stopped denotes current smoker; NS denotes never smoker.
"Mortality ratio is former smoker death rate relative to never smoker death rate, properly adjusted for age;
* Study of 34,445 men aged 204, at 10-year followup, 1951-1961. Doll and Hill (10, 1).
* Study of 34,440 men aged 20+, at 20-year followup, 1951-1971. Doll and Peto (12),
* Study of 187,783 men aged 50-69, at 44-month followup, 1952-1955. Hammond and Horn (22, 23).
*Study of 440,558 men aged 30+, approximately at 4-year followup, 1959-1963, for total mortality, and 358,534 disease-free men at 6-year followup, 1959-1965, for CHD mortality Hammond (20),

Hammond and Garfinkel (22).
" Study of 248,046 men aged 31-84, at 5.5-year or 8.5-year followup, 1954-1962. Kahn (32).
° Study of 248,045 men aged 31-84, at 13-year or 16-year followup, 1954-1969. Rogot and Murray (49).
* Study of 51,911 men aged 18-69, at 10-year followup, 1963-1972. Cederlof et al. (#).

ratio for never smokers is defined to be 1.0, Number of deaths are in parentheses.
People who persisted in cigarette smoking had more than twice the
risk of dying from CHD than those who quit even after taking into
account the other baseline differences. These studies provide stron-
ger evidence regarding the benefits of quitting than do the studies in
which all of the ex-smokers had stopped smoking before the
beginning of the followup.

Data from two “natural experiments” of smoking cessation among
physicians in Britain (72) and in California (14) are presented in
Table 3. Because these physicians have stopped smoking to a much
greater extent than has the general male population, the subsequent
CHD mortality trend in physicians as a whole relative to the general
population constitutes a crude estimate of the overall mortality
benefits of smoking cessation. This assumes that there have been no
other major risk factor changes in the compared populations, but
unfortunately, other risk factors were not measured in these two
studies. Both studies support the earlier prospective studies with
regard to the benefits of smoking cessation on CHD mortality. In
addition, they show the benefit of smoking cessation among a cohort
as a whole, including the continuing smokers with the quitters.

The most straightforward interpretation of ex-smoker data indi-
cating that CHD mortality rates of persons who stopped smoking are
substantially lower than those of persons who continued smoking, is
that smoking cessation directly results in the reduction of risk of
heart disease mortality. Underlying this presumed CHD benefit is
the assumption that ex-smokers are a representative sample of
smokers, except that they have stopped smoking. If the assumption
of representativeness is not valid and significant baseline differences
in relevant factors exist between ex-smokers and smokers, then the
mortality comparison of ex-smokers and continuing smokers may
not properly describe the benefits of smoking cessation for the
typical smoker. In the Kaiser-Permanente study (17), there were
small differences in risk profiles and other factors between those
who continued to smoke and those who quit, but these differences
were not large enough to account for the differences in CHD death
rates.

In summary, each of the several major prospective studies of
smoking cessation demonstrates that ex-cigarette smokers have a
decreased risk of subsequent mortality relative to continuing smok-
ers. The decreased risk occurs fairly quickly after cessation of
smoking, suggesting that the effects of cigarette smoking are
reversible. The quitters were self-selected in these observational
studies, however, and may include cigarette smokers at lower risk of
disease. However, the steadily decreasing risk over time after
quitting suggests that more is going on than the simple selection of a
lower risk group. Conversely, some smokers may quit in response to
symptoms or diagnosis of smoking-related illness, thus possibly

297
© TABLE 2.—Age-, sex-, and race-adjusted death rates according to smoking category and selected major

 

 

 

causes
Adjusted death rate per thousand person-years!

No. of All causes All Coronary

No. of person- except injuries All Lung circulatory heart

Category subjects years All causes and poisoning neoplasms cancer diseases disease
Persistent smokers 9,394 70,348 9.2 (557) 8.1 (485) 3.2 (191) 0.9 (58) 4.0 (240) 2.6 (168)

’

Temporary quitters 970 6,666 7.1 (46) 6.7 (43) 2.2 (14) 0.9 (6) 3.8 (24) 2.3 (16)
Persistent quitters 2,856 18,798 5.3 (107) 5.0 (102) 1.9 (39) 0.3 (6) 2.2 (46) 1.4 (31)
Never smokers 12,697 99,290 5.1 (569) 4.8 (540) 18 (199) 0.02 (2) 2.4 (275) 1.6 (186)

 

‘Figures in parentheses denote number of deaths.
Source: Friedmen et al. (77).
TABLE 3.—Relative trends in cigarette smoking and
coronary heart disease mortality among male
physicians in Britain and California in two
natural experiments of smoking cessation,
where status of other risk factors is unknown

 

British male physicians, 1951-71

 

 

Time period
1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-71
Percentage of physician current
smokers at start of time period 41 33 27 21
Ratio of amokers
(physicians/British males) 88 68 60 51

Standardized mortality ratio (physicians/British males)
CHD and myocard. degen., attained age

 

20-54 107 85 62

55-64 120 ~ 103 86

65-74 109 100 91

15-B4 88 94 100
All causes, attained age

20-64 82 76 70

65-84 75 7 78

 

California male physicians, 1950-79?

 

Time period
1950-54 1955-59 1960-64 1965-69 1970-74 1975-79

 

Percentage of physician current

smokers at start of time period 53 48 39 2B 20 14
Ratio of smokers
(physicians/U.S. males) 100 83 66 55 44 35

Standardized mortality ratio (physicians/U.S. males)

 

CHD 115 97 86 80 74 69
All causes 89 80 79 78 67 67

 

‘Study of 34,440 men aged 20+, followed for 20 years. Doll and Peto (12).
* Study of 10,310 men aged 25+, followed for 30 years. Enstrom (14).

underestimating the benefits of quitting that would be expected in

an otherwise healthy population. Other variables that may contrib-
ute to mortality may not have been included in the analysis.

Randomized Controlled Trials of CHD Prevention Not Involving
Smoking Cessation

The most rigorous way to determine the value of smoking
cessation is the randomized controlled trial. A series of important
experimental or clinical trials have been conducted in the United
States and other countries over the past 25 years in order to

299
establish the effectiveness of primary prevention of CHD through
modification of risk factors. These randomized controlled trials
involve both primary and secondary prevention (2). The primary
prevention trials select subjects who are free of CHD or stroke at
entry to the study. The secondary prevention trials attempt to
modify risk factors after a heart attack or stroke in order to reduce
the risk of a second heart attack or death (6, 7, 8 38, 40). Secondary
prevention trials and nonrandomized trials are not discussed further
here.

Most previous primary prevention trials of CHD have been limited
to a single risk factor such as serum cholesterol reduction. Many
single risk factor intervention trials include a pharmacologic agent
that lowers either serum cholesterol or blood pressure and is
compared with a placebo. Most of these studies are further limited to
higher risk subjects, such as subjects with serum cholesterol levels in
the highest 10 to 15 percent of the population, or to relatively small
sample sizes. They did not monitor or control for changes in cigarette
smoking habits.

The most extensive primary prevention trials involve dietary
reduction of cholesterol; they are described in more detail elsewhere
(2, 39). The major randomized trials are the Los Angeles veterans
domiciliary study (9), the Helsinki, Finland, mental hospital study
(42, 59), and a feasibility study of free-living and institutionalized
Americans (45). Each of these studies involved about 200 to 400 men
in the dietary intervention group and a similar number in the
control group.

Another set of randomized trials has involved reduction of high
blood pressure using antihypertensive medication—the U.S. Veter-
ans Administration cooperative study (63), the U.S. hypertension
detection and followup program (30, 31), the Australian therapeutic
trial (1), and the Oslo drug trial (24). These large studies followed
three small studies—Hamilton et al. (19), Wolff and Lindeman (67),
and the Cooperative Randomized Control Trial (CRCT) (5). These
studies generally show that lowered blood pressure results in some
reduction in CHD among the treated groups relative to the control

groups.

Intervention Trials of CHD Prevention Involving Smoking
Cessation

The observational epidemiological studies strongly suggest that
cigarette smoking cessation decreases the risk of heart attack and
CHD mortality compared with the risk for continuing smokers (60,
61, 62). All of the observational studies, however, have the limitation
that the individuals were not experimentally assigned to smoking
and nonsmoking status. Experimental studies such as randomized

300