FEE 2 6 1973

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20 February 1973

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FRED C, IKLE

HEAC, SOCIAL SCIEN LPaR ee oN T

Professor Joshua Lederberg
Stanford Arms-Control Faculty Group
Stanford University Medical Center
Stanford, California 94305

Dear Professor Lederberg:

Thank you for your interesting letter of February 12, with
attachments. I don't know whether I already sent you the
annotated version of my Foreign Affairs article, so I am en-
closing a copy.

I agree with you regarding the importance of command and
control for sea based deterrent forces. I have nothing
really new to add on this rather technical subject, beyond
the few sentences in my article, and the footnote.

Regarding the Genocide Convention, we seem to have been
thinking along similar lines. However, I would not recom-
mend that our current strategic doctrine become an argument
against ratification of the Genocide Convention, or even
(as you seem to propose) a reason for qualifying our accep-
tance of this Convention. As I stated in my piece, I would
instead favor a gradual moving away in our strategy from
the emphasis on the mass killing of populations.

You are right in contending that the risk of irrationality
is a residual problem that cannot quite be removed. I be-
lieve, though, that it can be mitigated by reducing the
emphasis on speed (thus curtailing opportunities for lower
level, irrational acts with catastrophic consequences) and
by moving plans for attacks on cities more into the back-
ground, as a last resort deterrent. I would disagree with
your postscript that "the MAD logic" is more effective
against the reciprocal fear of a first strike than any al-
ternative strategy. We should be able to develop alterna-
tive strategies and postures that are just as safe, if not
safer, against this problem.
Professor Joshua Lederberg -2- 20 February 1973

I, too, am looking forward to seeing you during my sabbatical
year at the Center in Palo Alto.

Sincerely yours,

ual Z
FCI:ak f
Enclosure