DNA Forensic Science: An Update
Agenda for Planning Meeting
Board Room
National Academy of Sciences

14 June 1993
8:00 Breakfast (Members Room)
Introduction and Overview
9:00 Welcome and opening remarks Philip M. Smith
Executive Officer
National Research Council
Paul Gilman
Executive Director
Commission on Life Sciences
9:15 Background and panel introductions James F. Crow
Meeting Chair
9:30 Meeting goals and objectives James F. Crow
Eric Fischer
Project Director
10:00 Protocols on forensic DNA evidence for the federal courts Joe Cecil
Federal Judicial Center
10:30 Break
10:45 Science and technology in judicial decision-making Helene Kaplan

Carnegie Commission

Presentation and Discussion of Agency Perspectives

This session will present the views of interested agencies on the key issues that need to be addressed and allow
time for discussion of these views.

11:00 Federal Bureau of Investigation John Hicks
11:30 National Institute of Justice Richard Rau

12:00 Lunch (Executive Dining Room)

1:15 Department of Energy Daniel Drell
1:30 National Science Foundation Alan Izenman
2:00 National Institutes of Health (tentative) TBA

2:30 Break
Delineation of Major Issues

The central purpose of this discussion is to identify the key major issues that must be addressed to resolve quickly
the current debate over statistical evaluation of DNA evidence. The results of this session will provide a
framework for the detailed discussion to be held by the planning group on Tuesday.

2:45 What methods should the study examine that are currently or potentially used in assessing and
evaluating DNA profile matches statistically?

3:15 What aspects of these methods must the study examine (e.g., their scientific bases, assumptions,
potential sources of error, and the effects of possible changes or improvements in procedures or
methodology for obtaining and processing DNA evidence, such as increases in the number of loci
examined, use of PCR, etc.)?

4:00 What aspects of referent populations are critical for the study to examine? For example, is it necessary
for the study to examine what is the correct referent population for a given case? What are the key
issues with respect to population substructure? What are the critical questions for the study to address
with respect to current knowledge and proposed studies of referent populations?

4:30 What other key issues need to be examined? For example, what, if any, potential pitfalls and common
misconceptions in the interpretation of probability estimates by the courts must the study address?
Does the study need to consider sources of error such as differences among laboratories or techniques?
Must it take into account alternative perspectives about the assumptions and assessments of uncertainty
and their implications in court cases?

5:00 Summary of key issues and questions that need to be addressed.

5:30 Reception (Rotunda)

6:00 Dinner — Executive Session (Members' Room)

Agenda for Planning Meeting on DNA Forensics Page 2
15 June 1993
All proceedings on June 15 will be attended by the planning group and relevant staff only

8:00 Breakfast (Executive Dining Room)

Specific Issues in key areas of expertise

The purpose of these sections of the meeting is to focus the general questions and issues discussed at the previous
day's meeting and cast them in a form that will be most helpful to the study committee when it is formed. Key
points to keep in mind during this discussion are:

e the importance of providing appropriate advice to the federal government, in keeping with the NRC's
mandate,
the fast-track nature of the study that is being contemplated, and
the importance of ensuring, to the extent possible, that the issues are addressed in a way that can most
likely be seen as a consensus view of the scientific community.

9:00 Statistical issues Discussion Leader: Herman Chernoff
10:30 Break
10:45 Issues in population genetics and molecular biology Discussion Leader: Wyatt Anderson

12:00 Lunch (Executive Dining Room)
1:15 Legal issues Discussion Leader: David Kaye
2:15 Break

Summary and Synthesis

During this session, the panel will summarize the issues and study plan, with the goal of reaching general
agreement on the issues and the essential steps needed to address them.

3:00 Review of issues.
4:00 Review of essential steps.
5:00 Adjourn

Agenda for Planning Meeting on DNA Forensics Page 3