NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

2101 Constitution Avenue Washington, D.C. 20418

Commission on Life Sciences
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

Prospectus
May 24, 1993

DNA Forensic Science: An Update

In 1992 the National Research Council (NRC) published DNA Technology in Forensic
Science. The report was immediately cited in court cases as the consensus of scientific opinion
for determining the admissibility of DNA typing as evidence and for specifying the statistical
approaches to be used in interpreting the data from this source of forensic information. Since
its publication, the report has been the subject of close attention and debate. Some scientists
have been critical of the conservative statistical approach. Forensic scientists have claimed that
ambiguities of language in the report permit lawyers to use the same evidence to arrive at very
different conclusions. At the same time, some appellate courts have begun remanding cases
because of concerns about the validity of DNA evidence, despite the clear endorsement of such
evidence in the NRC report.

The National Research Council has been considering how best to respond to the
debate. The Director of the FBI has written to NAS President Dr. Frank Press asking that the
NRC help in resolving the issues. A major factor in his request is that new evidence exists,
some of it prepared as a result of a recommendation in the report. He has asked that the NRC
form a committee using molecular biologists, forensic scientists, and statisticians to prepare a
new report.

In response, NRC is considering forming a committee of experts in molecular biology,
statistics, population genetics, forensic science, and law, with a representative of the authoring
committee of the 1992 report. This committee would:

e Review relevant recent information and current scientific understanding from human
genetics, molecular biology, population genetics, statistics, and other appropriate fields,
especially on the issue of population substructure; assess and clarify, in light of current
evidence, the scientific basis, validity, and underlying assumptions of alternative
approaches to the use of DNA evidence. This assessment will include the ceiling
principle and point out common misunderstandings such as considering an incorrect
population group or misinterpreting the meaning of the probability of a false match.

e Assess and describe the degree of certainty of DNA evidence in ways useful to the
courts; consider sources of error such as differences among laboratories or techniques;
and lay out alternative perspectives about the assumptions and assessments of
uncertainty and describe their implications in court cases.

The committee will meet three times during the course of the study. As early as
possible, a meeting will be held at which members receive briefings from designated agency
personnel and a representative sample of critics of the earlier NRC report.

The National Research Council is the principal operating agency of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering
to serve government and other organizations
NRC Prospectus ~- DNA Forensic Science: An Update 06/08/93

 

The target date for publication of the report is six months from receipt of funding. The
document will be published for wide distribution, in accordance with NRC's policies and
mandate. The audience will be the Department of Justice, the federal and state judiciaries,
Congressional committees, state law enforcement agencies, other legal institutions, criminal
lawyers, and scientists in disciplines related to statistics, molecular biology, population biology,
and law. The estimated total cost of this project is $300,000.

 

Contact: Dr. Eric Fischer — Project Director and Director, Board on Biology and the Institute
of Laboratory Animal Resources, NAS 358, 202-334-2215, fax: 202-334-1687; email:
efischer@nas.edu