METEOROLOGY. 
THE WEATHER MAP AND THE INDI- 
CATIONS. /y" aj 7T - 
BY ISAAC P. NOYES 
Occasionally we hear the remark—“the Signal Office was way ofLm thei 
weather predictions yesterday ”—“They have not been doing well for the past 
two or three days.” The weather, like many other things is irregular. At times 
it is almost like clock-work, and may be very well defined for even three or four 
days in advance; then comes a change. The relations of “ High” and “Low” 
are such that it is more difficult to tell what the weather will be twenty-four hours 
in advance than at other times to tell what it will be for three or four days in 
advance. The elements which go to make up our weather system do not oper- 
ate in regular grooves, but on the contrary are ever on the alert for the best op- 
portunity. Heat and cold vie with each other for the mastership, and “low ” is 
ever seeking the most.favorable localities to advance to, and is all the while being 
thwarted in its course and check-mated by “ high.” In this department of nature 
as in all other departments, even in affairs of men, as in politics, the great end is 
after all, more or less influenced by compromise. Nature in this respect, often 
sets us a wise example. Not that all our actions should be governed by com- 
promise, yet a judicious compromise is often times the part of wisdom. 
May 27th to 31st, inclusive, well illustrates the point in question and reveals 
some of the difficulties that the Weather Bureau labors under. When a statement 
is made by this office and the same is not fulfilled the weather-map of the suc- 
ceeding day will reveal the cause and a cause that any fair minded and intelligent 
person will readily comprehend and make allowance for. The weather map re- 
veals everything and conceals nothing. May 27th the new “ low ” was in the 
northwest, “high ” in the east, both moving toward the orient. The appearance 
then was that on account of the situation of “ high,” “ low ” would be deflected 
to the north and that the weather for this locality for the next two or three days 
would be warm and pleasant but not hot. On the 28th the main lines of “ high ” 
had passed off and left the coast apparently clear for “ low ” to advance without 
interruption, and the indications were that the advanced lines of “ low ” would 
be here on the 29th, passing this locality from the 29th to the 30th. It looked 
bad for Decoration Day. But “ high ” after all was not so fast about getting en- 
tirely out of the way, as it lingered and the rear-guard retarded the advance of 
“low.” For the next twenty-four hours “low” made very little progress and 
what little advance was made was more to the southward than the eastward; yet 
we were all the while on the look-out for it and expecting it every hour. On the 30th the situation of “high ” and “ low ” was not relatively changed. 
Both had worked a little more to the southward. “ Low ” was still held at bay, 
but ready to advance toward Washington at short notice. 
At 7 A. M. on the morning of the 31st the old “high” had disappeared off 
the coast. A new “high” was faintly indicated in the northwest. “Low” by 
this time had been crowded away down into Texas, Indian Territory, Arkansas 
and Louisiana, liable at any moment from this new position to advance and 
create what is generally termed a northeast storm. On the afternoon of the 31st 
this old “ low,” which had been so long expected finally reached here. 
June 1st a supplement to this “low” which had been separated from the 
main body came marching on. June 2d the coast was comparatively clear again, 
only a little new “low ” in the northwest, which it was not expected would disturb 
the conditions of this locality; but before midnight its course was such that the 
indications for the morning of the 3rd of June, were quite different from that of 
the afternoon of the 2d. 
It may be asked if there is no way of ascertaining in advance the course 
these storm centers will take or the speed at which they will travel across the 
country. None that we have thus far been able to discover. March 25th and 
26th “low ” went from the base of the Rocky Mountains to the Atlantic coast in 
thirty-two hours; on this occasion we see that it took five days for about the 
same distance. 
The indications of the Weather Bureau prove this uncertainty of direction 
and speed, for they would be most unwise not to do the best' they could. The 
weather map of each succeeding day is a proof of their ~wvisclom and integrity. 
Let the weather map be well understood, and what are now termed “ mistakes” 
will be revealed to be the best information that human wisdom could devise. 
In years to come when the world has comprehended the usefulness of the 
weather map, and comes to understand the movements of “high” and “low,” 
and becomes weather prophets for themselves, it will be amusing to contrast the 
writings of to-day, which plead for and defend the wisdom daily revealed on these 
maps, with the childish comments upon the weather, and the absurd attempts at 
guessing what the weather will be months and weeks in advance. I have pleaded 
for intelligence—for the intelligent people of the world to learn something about 
weather—about it as it stands to-day and as revealed on these wonderful maps; 
but hardly a day passes but what the most absurd notions in regard to the weath- 
er appears in prominent papers, and reveals the fact that many of the most intel- 
ligent people in the world are content to trust in sensational prophecies of the 
weather by those who have not contributed one advanced idea in regard to the 
changes which go to make up our weather system. 
The recent appearance of the comet reveals this fact most forcibly. The 
peculiar cool weather of June is “ all owing to the comet.” So they attempt to 
tell us. Had it been very warm these same parties would have said that it was 
“ all owing to the comet; ” as people in different localities on the same evening 
credit the clear or cloudy sky to the moon. It would seem that intelligent people 3 
should rise above such incongruities. Wisdom it would seem should inspire con- 
fidence, but instead ignorance seems to carry the day, at least in this department 
of the weather. If one will consult the weather map for the month of June they 
will see that “ Low ” most of the time passed over the country on a medium low 
line of latitude. The course of the majority of these “lows” or storm centres 
being from the northwest passing east on a line gradually working to the south- 
ward, even going as far south as Cape Hatteras and then along the coast to the 
northeast section of the country. Occasionally, however, one or two would 
keep on a high line. When they did so it was warm. 
These “ lows ” were so peculiar, so variable that it was most difficult to pre- 
dict the result. The sudden changes necessitated variable “indications.” For 
example it often happened that the evening paper would prepare the public for 
the next day to expect a certain kind of weather, when the change in only 
twelve hours would be such as to cause an “ Indication ” for the day to be quite 
the reverse. Then as on the 27th, 28th and 29th of June the confines of the 
area of “ low ” hovered about the locality of Washington. The storm centre had 
really passed and “indications” were published in accortance therewith. But 
these is no knowing what to expect from what may be termed the “posterior 
low,” * especially when “ low ” is on a high line, when the tendency is to create 
intensity of heat, or as it were develope local sub-“ lows.” Where these “ lows ” 
will develope it is beyond the power of man to know. We know that they will 
develope somewhere within an area of three to five hundred miles—such things 
in nature being on a large scale—but where will the objective point or point 
of concentration be, that is a question that I am thinking will ever defy the per- 
ception of man to find out in advance of the local demonstrations as revealed 
to the locality by that peculiar effect of “ closeness ” in the atmosphere which 
precedes the storm. 
As before stated in these papers, nothing better illustrates the course of ‘ ‘ low ” 
than to pour some water upon a slightly inclined plane and note the effect. 
Of course we know beforehand that it will take a certain general direction. But 
just note the course it takes how it circumvents spots, taking a zigzag course and 
coming together again, leaving certain spots dry, others wet, and never twice a 
alike. So with these “lows” and especially these “posterior lows” travel. To 
undertake to say just where local thunder storms or tornadoes will take place is 
most absurd. We know that they must take place somewhere within the general 
limits of “ low ” or the track of “ low.” But who will map out the lines before- 
hand ? As well may we attempt during a thunder storm to tell the exact places 
where the lightning will strike. We know that lightning is very apt to strike 
somewhere during a thunderstorm, but to pretend to be able to locate the spot 
or to request another to so is most absurd. Always when a storm centre is pass- 
ing Or has passed, we are liable, according to the season of the year to have cer- 
* In the future in these papers I will use the following terms to indicate the different phases of the storm 
centre. The “ anterior low ’’ to indicate that which precedes the centre proper ; the “ posterior low ” to ir di- 
cate that portion following the centre. 4 
tain effects which we term thunder storms, tornadoes, etc., but to locate them 
exactly or to say that they will positively occur seems most absurd to prophesy. 
Yet with all this intelligence and undeniable facts people even suggest and seem 
to believe that the sensational weather prophets must have some knowledge, some 
secrets of the weather patent to themselves which have not as yet been discover- 
ed even by the Weather Bureau, and many seem to have the idea that the 
Weather Bureau is well enough in its way for daily indications, but that the 
“ weather prophet ” system is better for forecasting the weather weeks and months 
in advance. They would, as it were, make a compromise between the two. 
Such remarks only prove ignorance of the subject on the part of those who make 
them. 
In this connection it must be borne in mind that the daily “indications” is 
only a part of the work of the Weather Bureau. The main work, whether real- 
ized or not, is to gain a knowledge of the meteorology of the world, and only 
through such efforts have we gained our present knowledge, in comparison with 
which all the knowledge of the “great weather prophets ” of the world is as 
nothing and mere boy’s play. Instead of the “ prophet ” system being superior 
to that of the Weather Bureau, it is in self impractical, unscientific and worthless, 
for the reason that there is no dependence in the idea that the weather periodi- 
cally repeats itself. The changes are endless, and there are so many powers 
and counter-powers at work, for them all to work together to produce results 
twice alike is absurd and unwarranted the by facts by the best authority accumu- 
lated in this department of science. 
The friends of one of the “ weather prophets” claim that he can tell what 
the weather will be for a year in advance, even *to the month and day. Let any 
intelligent person consult the almanac of this “prophet” for 1881 and note the 
prophecies for the first half of the year and compare them with what has actually 
taken place. For the month of June nothing could be more reversed. Seeing, 
however, that the month of May was prematurely warm he issues another state- 
ment quite the reverse of his first—evidently founding it upon the idea that pre- 
mature heat at this time of the year will be followed by cool rather than warm 
weather. All of these attempts, however, were of no practical value or any 
nearer the mark than any person could do who knows about what kind of weath- 
er is most likely to occur during the different months of the year. According 
to this man we were to have a fearful storm throughout the west and east on the 
20th of June, but the map for the day previous was clear as to the west, with only 
a probability of a local thunder storm or two in the east. But then it does not 
seem to matter how far from the mark this man comes; “great things” are 
claimed for him. Claims, it would seem, that the intelligent people of the world 
would have little respect for. The only reason that there is respect for such 
prophecies lies in the simple fact of want of knowledge of the weather system. 
Let this subject be understood as well as the other sciences of the world and we 
will have an entirely different order of things in this department. We will have 5 
a more complete weather system. As for “ weather prophets” they will all be 
at a discount. 
The future will demand more stations, especially throughout the west. The 
result of this will be better daily reports, whereby better and more advanced 
weather indications may be given to the country. The more we advance in this 
direction the more satisfaction will we derive from the system as a whole. Let 
the intelligent world once see and fully realize this and they will do all in their 
power to advance the interests of a worthy Bureau which at present seems to re- 
ceive little favor from them. 
Attention paid to error is detrimental to truth and honesty, while attention 
and support to that which is true advances truth and honesty and helps to build 
up the whole moral character of the world. Advances the human race and es- 
tablishes a broad foundation for it whereby it may the more successfully contend 
against that which is false.. 
Washington, D. C., July 4, 1881. v\* 
to