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The impact of the COVID-19 public health emergency expiration on all types of health coverage
The impact of the COVID-19 public health emergency expiration on all types of health coverage
An unprecedented number of people has enrolled in Medicaid since the COVID-19 pandemic began; the most recent data show enrollment jumped by more than 18 million people from February 2020 to June 2022. This increased enrollment largely owes to the continuous coverage requirement of the Families First Coronavirus Response Act, which has prevented state Medicaid agencies from disenrolling people during the public health emergency (PHE) unless they specifically request it. An increasingly urgent question is what will happen to health coverage after the PHE expires and states resume normal eligibility determinations. Using the latest available administrative data on Medicaid enrollment, recent household survey data on health coverage, and the Urban Institute’s Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model, we estimate health coverage at the expiration of the PHE (when Medicaid enrollment will be at its peak) and after the major coverage transitions that will follow.
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