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Introducing a public option or capped provider payment rates into private insurance markets: updated estimates
Introducing a public option or capped provider payment rates into private insurance markets: updated estimates
This brief updates a previous report on the impacts of a public option or capped provider payment rate health reform proposals published in March 2020 (Blumberg et al. 2020). In this update, we provide estimates for 2022, using a revised current-law baseline in the Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model (HIPSM) that reflects changes in economic conditions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. In this and two accompanying papers (Holahan and Simpson 2021a, 2021b), we analyze public option and capped provider payment rate proposals that apply to the nongroup health insurance market only and some that would apply both in the nongroup and employer health insurance markets. We show the anticipated impacts on premiums in both the nongroup and employer markets, the number of people uninsured, and spending by employers, households, and the federal government. We also show the effect on national health expenditures. We first consider a public option and capped provider payment rates introduced in the nongroup market alone. This is the most frequently proposed approach for such reforms (Blumberg et al. 2019, 2020; Blumberg, Simpson, and Buettgens 2019). However, other proposals would also extend a public option to the employer market.1 Because the number of people enrolled in employer coverage is more than nine times that in nongroup coverage and employer-based plans tend to pay health care providers higher rates than do nongroup insurers, introducing the public option or capping provider payment rates in both markets will have much greater effects than if the policies are introduced in the nongroup market alone.
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