The effects of large group meetings on the spread of COVID-19: the case of Trump rallies

The effects of large group meetings on the spread of COVID-19: the case of Trump rallies

Collection:
Health Policy and Services Research
Series Title(s):
Working paper (Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research)
Author(s):
Bernheim, B. Douglas, author
Buchmann, Nina, author
Freitas-Groff, Zach, author
Otero, Sebastian, author
Contributor(s):
Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, issuing body.
Publication:
Stanford, CA : Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), October 2020
Language(s):
English
Format:
Text
Subject(s):
COVID-19 -- transmission
Politics
Physical Distancing
United States
Genre(s):
Technical Report
Abstract:
We investigate the effects of large group meetings on the spread of COVID-19 by studying the impact of eighteen Trump campaign rallies. To capture the effects of subsequent contagion within the pertinent communities, our analysis encompasses up to ten post-rally weeks for each event. Our method is based on a collection of regression models, one for each event, that capture the relationships between post-event outcomes and pre-event characteristics, including demographics and the trajectory of COVID-19 cases, in similar counties. We explore a total of 24 procedures for identifying sets of matched counties. For the vast majority of these variants, our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen events implies that they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents. Extrapolating this figure to the entire sample, we conclude that these eighteen rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19. Applying county- specific post-event death rates, we conclude that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths (not necessarily among attendees).
Copyright:
Reproduced with permission of the copyright holder. Further use of the material is subject to CC BY-NC-ND license. (More information)
Extent:
1 online resource (1 PDF file (15 pages))
Illustrations:
Illustrations
NLM Unique ID:
101776190 (See catalog record)
Permanent Link:
http://resource.nlm.nih.gov/101776190