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Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on disruptions and potential loss of employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI)
Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on disruptions and potential loss of employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI)
A new University of Minnesota COVID-19 Health Insurance Model (MN-HIM) estimates that in the four weeks leading up to April 11, 2020, as many as 18.4 million individuals in the United States may be at risk of losing their employer-sponsored health insurance (ESI) coverage, including policyholders and their dependents. Based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimate that an additional 4.4 million initial unemployment insurance claims were filed in the week ending on April 18, 2020, our preliminary estimates of total potential ESI losses over the five-week period rise to 22.3 million. In a worst-case scenario, the loss of employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) could increase the national rate of uninsured by 65%--from 8.8% to 14.5%-- and the numbers of uninsured from 28.5 to 46.9 million. The MN-HIM model is designed to produce state-level estimates of ESI disruptions, and complements the recent analysis released by the Economic Policy Institute by including estimates of ESI coverage loss for policyholders as well as dependents. Understanding the magnitude of potential coverage disruptions, including total loss of coverage, resulting from unemployment is critical to policy makers, public program administrators, and safety net providers as they develop policy and programmatic responses to help affected populations.
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