CBO's long-term Social Security projections: changes since 2018 and comparisons with the Social Security trustees' projections

CBO's long-term Social Security projections: changes since 2018 and comparisons with the Social Security trustees' projections

Collection:
Health Policy and Services Research
Contributor(s):
United States. Congressional Budget Office, issuing body.
Publication:
[Washington, DC] : Congressional Budget Office, December 2019
Language(s):
English
Format:
Text
Subject(s):
Social Security -- trends
Social Security -- economics
United States
Genre(s):
Technical Report
Abstract:
Each year, the Congressional Budget Office updates its projections of the Social Security system's finances to incorporate newly available data and methodological improvements. CBO published its latest long-term budget projections in June 2019. This report compares those with the ones CBO prepared in 2018 and with the latest projections by the Social Security trustees. CBO's June 2019 projections of the Social Security system's financial outlook are similar to those it produced last year (see Table 1): (1) The projected 75-year actuarial balance, a commonly used measure of the system's financial condition, has not changed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) since last year, remaining at -1.5 percent of GDP (that is, a deficit of 1.5 percent). (2) As a percentage of taxable payroll, the projected 75-year actuarial balance has worsened slightly, moving from -4.4 percent to -4.6 percent. That change in the system's outlook results from several factors. (1) Worsening the outlook are reduced projections of interest rates, the inclusion of another year (2093) with a relatively large difference between Social Security's revenues and outlays, and some technical changes. (2) Improving the outlook are higher overall rates of projected labor force participation, lower projections of the number of workers who are awarded disability benefits, and the slightly lower projected share of the population that is age 65 or older. For the 2018--2093 period, CBO projects larger deficits in Social Security's finances than do the Social Security trustees. That difference is largely explained by CBO's and the trustees' different projections of several key inputs into estimates of the system's finances: the population, components of GDP growth, earnings subject to Social Security payroll taxes, and real interest rates (that is, interest rates adjusted to remove the effects of inflation).
Copyright:
The National Library of Medicine believes this item to be in the public domain. (More information)
Extent:
1 online resource (1 PDF file (14 pages))
Illustrations:
Illustrations
NLM Unique ID:
101764552 (See catalog record)
Permanent Link:
http://resource.nlm.nih.gov/101764552