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Medicaid expansion, health coverage, and spending: an update for the 21 states that have not expanded eligibility
Medicaid expansion, health coverage, and spending: an update for the 21 states that have not expanded eligibility
Ever since the Supreme Court ruled in June 2012 that states could effectively choose whether or not to accept the Affordable Care Act's expansion of Medicaid eligibility, that choice has been one of the most prominent and often one of the most contentious issues for states. In this report, we provide new projections of the impact of Medicaid expansion on health coverage, Medicaid enrollment, and costs in states that have not expanded Medicaid. We find that if the 21 states that have not expanded Medicaid as of April 2015 were to do so: (1) The number of nonelderly people enrolled in Medicaid would increase by nearly 7 million, or 40 percent. (2) 4.3 million fewer people would be uninsured. (3) There would be $472 billion more federal Medicaid spending from 2015 to 2024. (4) States would spend $38 billion more on Medicaid from 2015 to 2024. (5) Savings on reduced uncompensated care would offset between 13 and 25 percent of that additional state spending. (6) States would be able to realize other types of budgetary savings if they expanded Medicaid that are not included in this report.
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